On February 10, 2025, the European Union officially adopted Implementing Regulation No. 2025/261, deciding to impose final anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese produced biodiesel.
This move not only exacerbates the tension in China Europe trade relations, but may also profoundly affect the energy price structure, transportation costs, and overall price stability within the EU.
What is particularly noteworthy is that this regulation does not seem to bring any actual benefits to consumers, but may instead exacerbate existing inflationary pressures.
EU anti-dumping measures: root causes and consequences exploration
Overview of core content:
In accordance with Implementing Regulation No. 2025/261, the European Union will impose a maximum anti-dumping duty of 35.6% on biodiesel originating from China, with the specific tax rate distribution as follows:
EcoCeres Group (such as Zhangjiagang ECO Biochemical): 10.0%;
Jiaao Group (such as Zhejiang Dongjiang Energy): 35.6%;
Zhuoyue Group (such as Longyan Excellent New Energy): 23.4%;
Other cooperative enterprises: 21.7%;
All other Chinese exporters: 35.6%.
It is worth noting that this regulation exempts sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), meaning that aviation fuel that meets the ASTM7566-22 standard is not affected, but biodiesel, which is mainly used for transportation and heating, will be severely affected.
Background of the promulgation of regulations:
The EU's imposition of anti-dumping duties this time is based on allegations of "dumping" of Chinese biodiesel. The EU claims that the influx of Chinese biodiesel into the European market at prices below cost has caused serious damage to the local biodiesel industry.
However, behind this move may lie a deep motivation for the EU to protect its domestic energy industry, especially during a critical period of global energy structure transformation, where biodiesel, as a key component of renewable energy, holds a pivotal strategic position.
Analysis of the impact on China:
For Chinese biodiesel manufacturers, this regulation undoubtedly constitutes a heavy blow. As one of the world's major exporters of biodiesel, China will lose the important market of the European Union. The implementation of anti-dumping duties will significantly increase the export cost of Chinese biodiesel and weaken its market competitiveness.
短期内，中国企业或将面临市场份额缩减、利润下滑的严峻挑战。
Price increase of biodiesel:The Chain Effect of Transportation Costs and Consumer Price Index
The anti-dumping duty will lead to a surge in the import cost of biodiesel. Taking B7 diesel as an example, if the cost of biodiesel increases by 10%, the retail price of blended diesel may rise by 0.7% -1.5%. Given that China accounts for 15% -20% of the EU's biodiesel imports, this increase may further expand.
Diesel is the core fuel for road transportation in Europe, accounting for 30% -40% of transportation costs. For every 1% increase in fuel prices, logistics costs may increase by approximately 0.3%. This price increase will be transmitted to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) through the following channels:
(1) Logistics costs are rising, and transportation companies may increase freight rates to compensate for the increase in fuel costs;
(2) The rise in commodity prices depends on the transportation of food, retail goods, and other prices, which will also increase accordingly.
(3) According to data from the German central bank, the sensitivity of transportation costs to CPI is about 0.2. This means that if the overall price of biodiesel increases by 10%, the EU CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% -0.3%.
Increased heating costs:
In Nordic countries, biodiesel is also used for household heating. Countries such as Sweden and Finland that rely on biodiesel mixed with heating oil may see heating costs increase by 2% -5%. Due to the large proportion of household energy expenditure in CPI (about 6% in Sweden), this price increase will directly push up inflation levels.
Other potential impacts of this regulation:
(1) The pressure of green transformation is increasing:
The EU requires that the proportion of renewable energy in the transportation sector reach 29% by 2030. If the supply of biodiesel is limited, it may force member states to accelerate the development of hydrogen energy and promote electrification, but the cost will be higher in the short term. This means that the EU may need to increase funding in the short term to support the research and promotion of new energy technologies, which will undoubtedly increase the financial burden.
(2) Trade transfer risk:
The EU may shift towards biodiesel from countries such as Indonesia and Argentina, but these countries are also facing anti-dumping investigations (such as palm oil-based biodiesel from Indonesia), and the long-term supply stability is questionable. In addition, the production of biodiesel in these countries also faces environmental and social issues, which may trigger new controversies and concerns.
(3) Enterprise strategic adjustment:
Chinese manufacturers may shift to producing tax-free SAF (requiring technological innovation) or explore emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa. This adjustment not only requires huge capital investment, but may also face technological barriers and market uncertainty.
As an ordinary consumer, I have not seen any practical benefits brought to our lives by this regulation. On the contrary, it may push up fuel prices, increase transportation costs, and thus trigger an increase in CPI.
Against the backdrop of a global economic downturn and rising trade protectionism, the EU seems to have not focused on measures to improve people's quality of life, but has fallen into the "empty talk" of technocrats.
We hope that the EU can re-examine this regulation and focus more on its own development, rather than protecting local industries through trade barriers. After all, true sustainable development should achieve a harmonious coexistence of economy, environment, and society, rather than sacrificing the interests of ordinary people.