United Nations Environment ProgrammeThe latest "2024 Emissions Gap Report" released by the Environmental Agency shows that countries must jointly commit to reducing annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and take swift action to support this goal, otherwise the 1.5 ° C target of the Paris Agreement will be internalized as a bubble in a few years.
The new version of the National Independent Contribution Plan will be submitted before the COP30 climate negotiations in Brazil early next year. The Environmental Agency's "2024 Emissions Gap Report: Stop Talking" found that if the ambition for a new round of nationally determined contributions is not raised and implemented immediately, global temperatures will rise by 2.6-3.1 ° C within this century. This will have a destructive impact on humanity, the planet, and the economy.
The comprehensive implementation of current unconditional and conditional nationally determined contributions will lead to a temperature rise of 2.6 ° C. The implementation of existing conditional nationally determined contributions will result in a temperature increase of up to 2.8 ° C. Continuing to implement the current policy will only lead to a warming of 3.1 ° C. There is a probability of over 66% that all three scenarios will occur, and regardless of which scenario, temperatures will continue to rise into the next century. On the basis of fully implementing unconditional and conditional nationally determined contributions, adding additional net zero commitments can limit global warming to within 1.9 ° C, but there is currently insufficient confidence in implementing these net zero commitments.
The critical moment for climate change has arrived. From now on, before the next round of climate commitments, we need to mobilize globally on an unprecedented scale and speed, otherwise the 1.5 ° C target will soon fail and the goal of warming far below 2 ° C will be in jeopardy, "said Inge Anderson, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme." I urge every country: please stop empty talk. Take the upcoming 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan as an opportunity to immediately increase action, lay the foundation for stronger nationally determined contributions, and then make every effort to move towards the 1.5 ° C target.